Inaccurate or Incomplete Data as a Source of Uncertainty in Econometric or Attitudinal Models of Travel Behavior (1979)

©Antti Talvitie, 1973

Inaccurate or Incomplete Data as a Source of Uncertainty in Econometric or Attitudinal Models of Travel Behavior

New Horizons in Travel Behavior, Brög, W., A.H. Meyburg, and P. Stopher, Eds. D.C. Heath, Lexington, MA. 1979.

Antti Talvitie (aptalvitie(at)gmail.com)

ABSTRACT

The chapter discusses the uncertainties and errors in level-of-service data, in land-use and socioeconomic data, and in behavior data, and their effects on models and forecasts of travel behavior. Evidence is shown to suggest that there are substantial errors in transportation level-of-service data and in forecast land-use and socioeconomic data. Of the service variables, the excess time components and auto costs are especially poorly approximated. There also is uncertainty about what car costs ought to be calculated, and how. It is shown that these decisions affect the choice models significantly. The allocation of land-use and socioeconomic variables to traffic zones is done quite inaccurately, even though the totals for the region may be predicted well. Population forecasts, which may mean household-size forecasts, appear to be subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Finally, the chapter discusses briefly the uncertainties present in travel-behavior interviews. It is claimed that intrasubjective and intersubjective uncertainties are inevitable in any interview and that their effects are many and substantial but presently unknown.

FULL PAPER, Pdf, 2780 KB, 15 pages.