Reasoning-Building Process for Transportation Project Evaluation (2015)

  

© Kronprasert, N. and Talvitie, A.P. (2015)

Paper Submitted for Publication in the Transportation Research Record

Journal of Transportation Research Board

Paper 14-1784

Reasoning-Building Process for Transportation Project Evaluation and Decision-Making: Use of Reasoning Map and Evidence Theory

TRB Record 2453, pp. 11-21 (2015). Washington DC, (with Kronprasert).

Nopadon Kronprasert, Ph.D. (Corresponding Author)

Research Associate

National Research Council

Federal Highway Administration

6300 Georgetown Pike, McLean, VA 22101, USA

Antti P. Talvitie, Ph.D., Professor (em)

Aalto University, Finland

Rakentajanaukio 4, Pl 2100, Espoo, Finland

Email: (aptalvitie(at)gmail.com)

ABSTRACT

Policy-makers of today’s transportation investment projects engage in dialogues and debates in which the reasonableness and clarity are of great value. In the traditional transportation systems planning practices, different stakeholders reason and provide evidence in support of their preferences, but these opinions are often conflicting and rarely consistent. This paper presents a goal-oriented decision-making method for finding a transportation alternative that best achieves the project’s goals and also indicating the level of satisfaction of different stakeholders. The proposed method (i) applies a reasoning map to structure how experts and citizens perceive the alternatives for achieving the project’s goals, and (ii) provides belief measures in evidence theory to what extent the alternatives achieve the goals of different stakeholders.

This method gives three kinds of results. First, the degrees of goal achievement can be calculated for different stakeholders. Second, the integrity of the reasoning and the quality of information are both evaluated based on measures of uncertainty associated with this information. Finally, the critical reasoning links that matter most significantly to goal achievement can be identified by means of sensitivity analysis. The paper applies the proposed method to evaluate a Streetcar alternative against Bus Rapid Transit alternative in a real-world transit alternatives analysis. The reasoning-building process provides means for the planners and citizens to present their own logic and justifications. This promotes focused discourse among different stakeholders and enriches the quality of the planning and decision-making process.

Keyword: Transportation planning; Transit project evaluation; Decision-making; Reasoning; Evidence theory

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