Specification, Transferability and the Effect of Data Outliers in Modeling the Choice of Mode in Urban Travel (1978)

 
©Antti Talvitie, Daniel Kirshner 1978

ANTTI TALVITIE

State University of New York, Buffalo, N. Y. 14214

and

DANIEL KIRSHNER

Cambridge Systematics Inc./West, Berkeley, Ca., U.S. A .

ABSTRACT

Three problems of great importance to urban travel demand modeling using multinominal logit models are examined in this paper. They are (1) the effect of data outliers on model coefficients; (2) the effect of model specification on coefficients and model explanatory power; and (3) the transferability of model coefficients within the region, between regions, and in time.

Four data sets are used in the study. They are: Washington, D.C., Minneapolis-St.

Paul, and two data sets from the San Francisco Bay Area, Pre-BART and Post-BART. The data are standard home-interview survey data appended with network supplied modal travel cost and time information.

Policy Analysis of a Transportation Corridor (1978)

©Antti Talvitie, 2025

Policy Analysis of a Transportation Corridor describes a travel demand assessment for eleven land use and level-of-service options. The demand forecasts were carried out using a representative sample of travelers expanded to cover the study area. The methods and models are explained in two papers under the Travel Demand of the blogpost: Models for Transportation Level of Service (for access and linehaul) and An Equilibrium Model System for Transportation Corridors. 

The analyses with comprehensive descriptions of travel demand were conducted in one week using the expansion of traveler sample enumeration method and a comprehensive network, travel pricing, and land use definitions. Costs of the plans can be analytically related to the planning options (not reported in this paper but described elsewhere in The Final Report Series, Vol. X) to facilitate benefit-cost analyses.

Antti Talvitie CV

CURRICULUM VITAE

NAME: Antti Petri TALVITIE

PROFESSION: Transport Management Expert, Psychoanalyst, and Professor of Transportation

NATIONALITY: Finland

SUMMARY: Mr. Talvitie is a transportation consultant and psychoanalyst. Previously he worked in the World Bank; as Director of Highway Construction and Maintenance in the Finnish Road Administration; and in the private sector. He was a Professor and Chairman of the Civil Engineering Department in the State University on New York at Buffalo, and Professor (Emeritus) at Aalto University, Espoo, Finland. 

As a self-employed consultant working for Consultancies, and International Financing Institutions mostly in Central and Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, and China. Important assignments include:

- Technical Adviser for the financier banks in E-18 PPP project in Finland, for which he also carried out Due Diligence. 

- Team member in the World Bank’s evaluation of the Bank’s Governance and Anti-Corruption (GAC) Strategy

- Team member in the World Bank’s Fee-Based service contracts to Bulgaria, Poland, Kuwait, Russia, and Romania. 

- Project assignments in Armenia, Georgia, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, India, Russia, and Latin American countries. 

- Team member in a PPP consultancy service for the Tanzanian Ministry of Finance in the transport sector. 

- Team member in Consultancy Services for the design of enhanced business and change management processes for Road Asset Management in Nigeria. 

- Carried out Project Performance Assessments (PPAR) and Implementation Completion Reports (ICR) in several countries for the World Bank, and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). 

- Consultant for World Bank loan to establish PPP procedures in China 

- Lead evaluator of the World Bank’s Multidonor Trust Fund for Mobility and Logistics (MOLO) Evaluation 

As World Bank staff, Program Team Leader for Romania, Armenia, and Georgia transport programs. Task Team Leader for the Azerbaijan Highway project, and a team member in a rural development project in Romania and a highway project in Russia. Lead evaluator of China’s Transport Sector Program and numerous Project Performance Assessments (PPAR) and Implementation Completion Reports (ICR) for Romania, Thailand, Indonesia, Bolivia, Honduras, Peru, Jamaica, Uganda, Tanzania, Jordan, China, Yemen, and Pakistan.

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